Arsenal got thrashed and so did I

This was one of those games that really doesn’t work well with the unders. I was chasing a break even for to whole of the game and looking to do it by making some in the under 3.5 and the under 4.5 goals markets. Not long before the 5th goal I had seen the odds drop so that my liability of 30 euro was coming down and I was thinking in terms of trading out without greening so that the liability would be on the unders. The reasoning behind that was that Spurs were 4 goals to nil and I expected that Arsenal would at least leave the place with a consolation goal, especially with the intense rivalry between these two teams. The liability had come down to 15 Euro and I was about to put in the trade and of course the match is suspended and I am stuffed.

Earlier in the game I could have got out for a small manageable loss but then 20/20 vision in hindsight is a wonderful thing. It was another lesson learned and I will have to be more careful next time. I was using Soccer Mystic again and also BetAngel. I still prefer BetAngel over soccer mystic despite the extra tools more useful to the football trading. I imagine this is probably a personal thing due to the number of windows that pop up all the time with Soccer Mystic compared to the compact behaviour of BetAngel.

The other thing to mention is the market maker button which I was trying out with that game, First time I used it it was fine even though the lay on the unders hit first the lay on the overs did get matched later, to leave a small profit on the game well before the game was due to start. The second time the order of matching would have been the same except that the second bet didn’t match and that was another thing that made things more difficult to deal with in the game when all the goals were going in. The reason the second bet didn’t get matched was that the odds came down about 5 ticks from where I entered the market and so there was no chance to get the second part of the trade done. Something to look out for.

Later this week I just have not really traded much. I looked in on Wednesday evening and there was only one game and frankly I couldn’t be bothered. On Saturday there were the FA Cup games and they can be quite erratic so I left them alone also.

I am still thinking of value in betting and I am wondering what is the percentage of games that are not 0-0 that stay under 2.5 goals and what would I have to get in the odds to have value. When the odds have gone up after the first goal is there enough of a price to be of value to be able to leave it and take more money off the game. It shouldn’t be too difficult to work out 8% of games are nil nil approx. So how I just have to look at the correct scores data to work out the percentage. I will let you know when I have more information for you on that idea.

I am also keen to look at the dutching of the correct score, maybe setting up the dutch on the 7 more likely scores and the adding to it if there are goals which look like it might go beyond the dutch. I will do some testing and let you know on that one too. I will be able to use Soccer Mystic easily for the dutching or even BetAngel if I wish.