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Trading Spurs and Bolton in Betfair under 2.5 goals markets

Successful trading last night using BetAngel. I put in my first trade in the Spurs game after the first goal. I traded until I had about half of my target 1% of my betting bank and greened up. Then I moved to the under 3.5 goals market to set up a new trade.

I also got a trade going on the Bolton game and did the same and then greened up. Decided to grab a bit more from trading on the Benfica vs Nurnberg. I did this one as it was quite late in the game and quite likely that it would stay under 2.5 goals.

In the end I made 2.28% profit on the betting bank which was good going and safe too.

RacingPlace and 80-20

Horse race

Another day yesterday with a small loss 0.32 points which for the 20 euro bets I am working with equals €7.33 after the commission is taken into account. We have to remember that this is a long term propostion and 2 days with a small loss is not the end of the world. What I have done also is to sign up for the 7 day free trial of the tips from 80-20 itself and will look at it separate to see how it works out with profits. I looked into the January and February stats for their tips and did a spreadsheet to work out how the money would have worked out with my stake size.

By my calculations it took them two and half days to get into profit in January and the rest of the month was just a gradual growth of the betting bank. The day one was minus 46 euro and the day two was minus 2.76 euro and day three saw a profit of €57.56. During the month the daily profit varied between minus 140 and plus 137 Euro and the final tally for the month was a profit of €404. Now you have to bear in mind that this is an approximate figure because I could have gone into the bettiing exchange at a different time of day and gor different odds completely. Perhaps better, perhaps worse odds. I expect we would not be too far out though.

With my direct and live test of the numbers I am still in profit after 3 days of testing by €146 and it is still too early to say if it will be a total success for the month. Looking very promising though. Also today I have checked the prices in Betdaq instead of Betfair for the Racing place tips and Betfair for the 80-20 tips.

1 comment to Trading Spurs and Bolton in Betfair under 2.5 goals markets

  • I love the 2.5 and 3.5 trades on Betfair. I have done quite nicely recently, although it is the trades that go wrong that tend to define how profitable you are overall. Creating a decent exit strategy for these can be quite tough, especially when a goal has been score very soon after opening the bet. There is a big temptation to hold on to these bets in hope that no other goal is scored or you bet moves into positive territory before another goal is scored. The safest strategy is clearly to protect the remainder of your stake and green (or perhaps red) up on the loss. For a 100 euro stake it is usually possible to exit fairly quickly after the odds have settled back down and take a 25-35 euro loss. Not a great result, but much better than losing your entire stake. The other option might be to open a new 100 euro back trade on under 2.5 goals and then wait for say a 10-15 point drop before laying for 200 euros, but if another goal is scored, exiting this becomes very expensive.

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