Trading on Premiership football on Betfair

Four games to look at today and The Everton Man United game will be a hard fought game. West Brom will have their hands full with Hull City. Spurs are playing at home and who knows, maybe they will win a game some time soon.

I am not  an Aston Villa supporter but still would like to see them win at Wigan tomorrow. They did well in the European game mid week with a 2-1 win. Gareth Barry putting in the winner.

As for trading today I might keep looking at the Football Cash Generator because it still needs some more testing to be long term enough to be useful.

I was asked about trading on the backing the draw in the same terms as doing the under 2.5 goals. I need to think about that some more. The differences will be where you have one team score 2 goals and the odds will be very different in the way that they operate compared to the unders market. I plan to make some comparisons with different games by looking at the graphs of the changing odds.

I suppose there will be a difference in the fact that the under 2.5 goals market is ended when the score has gone to 2-1 or 1-2 but with the trading on the draw rather than the unders you still could have a position on the game. I suppose it depends on the probability of a draw and the odds that are available, and getting value. With the unders you should be looking for odds of 1.9 or above so that you have value. I will find out what odds are required for the draw.

Just looked at the stats so far this season and to back the draw and have value you need odds of 5 or above.

I would also like to go back to the correct score dutching. Last season I was looking at the dutching of the correct score and it worked pretty good. Better results that I have had from the Football Cash Generator so far.

Just looked at the live scores and Man U went ahead a goal at 22 minutes and in the Sunderland Newcastle game there is a goal for the home team after 5 minutes. UPDATE – Everton Man U finished 1-1 well done the toffees. And the Sunderland game is 1-1 after 60 mins too.

Have a look at the two graphs from the Sunderland Newcastle game, and notice what a difference between the two.

When these pictures were taken the score was at 1 -1. With the unders you would not be making any money and with the draw you would have made money. Ass soon as the second goal went in the draw odds went to where they would have been without either of the goals happening. The first goal went in at 20 minutes and the equaliser was 30 minutes.

With the unders look at the odds after the second goal. There was a sharp move down of the odds. Obviously 5.00 was way too high and the market adjusted itself downwards. Of course it is a bit risky as one more goal would close the market but if you were not greedy they you could make a decent profit on the trading.

It seems to me that the rate of movement downwards with the match odds on the draw is not that rapid. But it could still work well especially if you got a bet in after the first goal, but that could be risky too as you have to guess that there is going to be an equaliser. In that case you are using football knowledge and or game knowledge rather than probability and what is most likely to happen. You would have to study what games go to 1-1 and then one team or other wins.

I suggest you get BetIE and try these things out in try out mode. You can test your ideas without risking your cash.

After the Third goal in the Sunderland game. Pretty close to the end of the game…

Sunderland winning