Trading tennis
I got an email in the other day from a blog reader Bob and he has an idea about trading tennis. I don’t really know much about trading tennis so I sent the question to a friend who does know about trading tennis.
I also mentioned tennis the other day and said I had an idea. I have some software called On Court which has every stat about every player and match for the last 10 years. Some of these stats are based around the serve. What I want to do is to find a game where one or both players are poor to average servers but are good returners, thereby giving a greater opportunity for break points and actual service breaks. I will then look to trade for a break on the favourite’s serve. I reckon the downside if he holds serve is very low (possibly a few ticks) but the upside can be great. Even the threat of a break (15-30 or 30-40) should be enough to give a decent profit. The reason for selecting the favourites serve is that the initial bet is a lay and this keeps liability down.
So this is how I think it should be done.
Using the match odds market place a lay bet on the favourite as he is about to start his service game. Lets say the odds are 1.5 and you are happy to accept a £100 liability. This will give you £200 on the receiver. Should the fave hold serve I reckon his price will drop to be maybe 1.45 so you could trade out for a £7 all red. However should his opponent break I reckon the price could very easily go out to 1.8 (trade at £33 all green) and even at 30-40 the price could be 1.65 (trade at £18 all green).
I would be very interested to hear your friend’s take on this and also keen to hear any other advice he may have.
I sent this to a friend who has had quite a bit of experience trading tennis and the reply is available by request. Sorry I can’t put it in here.
Have a look at the comments there is a comment about the tennis though.
So there you go good luck with trading tennis. Contact me with your questions. If I don’t know the answer then I may know someone that does.
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Bob isn’t worried about fast pictures, he’s trading games. There is so much hysteria about fast pics it’s ridiculous. There’s 20 seconds plus between points, just pick your moments. If it worries you, don’t bet. If you’re smart about it, turn it in your favour. Put a price you are willing to take into the system and let it be taken.
The market assumes the player about to serve will hold, so laying them doesn’t hold much risk (down a few ticks if successful), but big upside if they are broken, or even get close to that break.
Cheers
Scott
http://sportismadeforbetting.blogspot.com
Comments like the one from Scott are amusing. I realise this is a year old now, but hey ho…
Bob isn’t worried about fast pictures, he’s trading games. There is so much hysteria about fast pics it’s ridiculous.
- For good reason – do you see how much money is matched during a match and the odds the money is getting matched at? There are 3 stages for money being matched between points during a tennis match. First come the quick picture players who hoover up the dead money and offer inferior odds, secondly it’s everyone else without quick pictures and may still want to get matched so have to jump the quick picture money and offer more competitive prices, and then come the desperate.
There’s 20 seconds plus between points, just pick your moments.
- Yeah, there may be 20 seconds, but you have to wait for the market to reach its position before putting your money into it, so that’s 5 seconds gone.
If it worries you, don’t bet. If you’re smart about it, turn it in your favour. Put a price you are willing to take into the system and let it be taken.
- I would seriously suggest for anyone attempting to trade tennis not to just let their money get taken. That’s the road to the poor house. If you just put your money in at the wrong place and are behind more competitive prices, the only way you’ll be matched is if you are wrong.
The market assumes the player about to serve will hold, so laying them doesn’t hold much risk (down a few ticks if successful), but big upside if they are broken, or even get close to that break.
- It sounds so simple! Just keep laying the server and we’re all going to make millions! The market doesn’t assume that a player about to serve is going to hold. The market moves less if the server holds, but it doesn’t assume he/she will.
Posts like this make trading tennis sound easy. It is not easy.