Trading tennis
I got an email in the other day from a blog reader Bob and he has an idea about trading tennis. I don’t really know much about trading tennis so I sent the question to a friend who does know about trading tennis.
I also mentioned tennis the other day and said I had an idea. I have some software called On Court which has every stat about every player and match for the last 10 years. Some of these stats are based around the serve. What I want to do is to find a game where one or both players are poor to average servers but are good returners, thereby giving a greater opportunity for break points and actual service breaks. I will then look to trade for a break on the favourite’s serve. I reckon the downside if he holds serve is very low (possibly a few ticks) but the upside can be great. Even the threat of a break (15-30 or 30-40) should be enough to give a decent profit. The reason for selecting the favourites serve is that the initial bet is a lay and this keeps liability down.
So this is how I think it should be done.
Using the match odds market place a lay bet on the favourite as he is about to start his service game. Lets say the odds are 1.5 and you are happy to accept a £100 liability. This will give you £200 on the receiver. Should the fave hold serve I reckon his price will drop to be maybe 1.45 so you could trade out for a £7 all red. However should his opponent break I reckon the price could very easily go out to 1.8 (trade at £33 all green) and even at 30-40 the price could be 1.65 (trade at £18 all green).
I would be very interested to hear your friend’s take on this and also keen to hear any other advice he may have.
I sent this to a friend who has had quite a bit of experience trading tennis and the reply is available by request. Sorry I can’t put it in here.
Have a look at the comments there is a comment about the tennis though.
So there you go good luck with trading tennis. Contact me with your questions. If I don’t know the answer then I may know someone that does.
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